The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
68%Tampa Bay BuccaneersSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TB by 6.2market TB by 10
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
40.1 pointsmarket 47
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 68% to win, with the market at TB by 10.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Kenny Pickett starting for Pittsburgh Steelers, and the model prices that in.
TB has the advantage in passing: TB passing ranks #14, PIT defends it at #26; the other way PIT #18 into TB's #18.
Counterpoint: rushing favours PIT. PIT rushing ranks #4, TB defends it at #14; the other way TB #31 into PIT's #13. The pick still lands on TB because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: PIT has the better last five games by 11.6 points a game (PIT +5.2, TB -6.4).
Home field is with PIT, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it TB by 6.2 against a market TB by 10: 3.8 points of daylight in PIT's favour. The model's total is 40.1 against a line of 47: 6.9 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TB by 6.2 · market TB by 10
ⓘMost of these areas favor PIT, but the model still picks TB. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
TB
Slight advantage
TB passing ranks #14, PIT defends it at #26; the other way PIT #18 into TB's #18.
Rushing game
PIT
Clear advantage
PIT rushing ranks #4, TB defends it at #14; the other way TB #31 into PIT's #13.
Third down & red zone
PIT
Slight advantage
PIT red-zone touchdown rate ranks #21, TB defends it at #30; the other way TB #25 into PIT's #15.
Big plays
=
Even
PIT explosive rush rate ranks #23, TB defends it at #21; the other way TB #31 into PIT's #8.
Pass protection & rush
TB
Slight advantage
TB sack rate ranks #1, PIT defends it at #14; the other way PIT #12 into TB's #11.
Ball security
PIT
Clear advantage
PIT turnovers / game ranks #6, TB defends it at #24; the other way TB #11 into PIT's #12.
Form (last 5)
PIT
Clear advantage
PIT +5.2 per game over the last five, TB −6.4.
Market
TB
Clear advantage
Consensus has TB by 10; the model says TB by 6.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket TB by 10 · model TB by 6.2
Mkt TB 10
Model TB 6.2
← TB by 28tiePIT by 28 →
6.4% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 10, a number 5.0% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 7. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 47 · model 40.1
Mkt 47
Model 40.1
20 pts4672 pts
17.3% of NFL games finish between 47 and 40.1. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
