The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
70%Indianapolis ColtsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
IND by 7.2market IND by 1
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
33.1 pointsmarket 41
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Indianapolis Colts at 70% to win, with the market at IND by 1.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Matt Ryan starting for Indianapolis Colts, and the model prices that in.
Counterpoint: passing favours JAX. JAX passing ranks #7, IND defends it at #15; the other way IND #31 into JAX's #24. The pick still lands on IND because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: IND has 3 more days since its last game (IND 10d, JAX 7d).
Form: JAX has the better last five games by 25.2 points a game (IND -16.8, JAX +8.4).
Home field is with IND, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it IND by 7.2 against a market IND by 1: 6.2 points of daylight in IND's favour. The model's total is 33.1 against a line of 41: 7.9 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model IND by 7.2 · market IND by 1
ⓘMost of these areas favor JAX, but the model still picks IND. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
JAX
Clear advantage
JAX passing ranks #7, IND defends it at #15; the other way IND #31 into JAX's #24.
Rushing game
JAX
Slight advantage
JAX rushing ranks #19, IND defends it at #9; the other way IND #30 into JAX's #6.
Third down & red zone
JAX
Slight advantage
JAX red-zone touchdown rate ranks #13, IND defends it at #31; the other way IND #29 into JAX's #25.
Big plays
JAX
Slight advantage
JAX explosive pass rate ranks #15, IND defends it at #17; the other way IND #30 into JAX's #15.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
JAX sack rate ranks #5, IND defends it at #8; the other way IND #28 into JAX's #28.
Ball security
JAX
Slight advantage
JAX turnovers / game ranks #29, IND defends it at #21; the other way IND #32 into JAX's #10.
Form (last 5)
JAX
Clear advantage
IND −16.8 per game over the last five, JAX +8.4.
Market
=
Even
Consensus has IND by 1; the model says IND by 7.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket IND by 1 · model IND by 7.2
Mkt IND 1
Model IND 7.2
← JAX by 28tieIND by 28 →
22.5% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 1, a number 4.5% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7 and 6. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 41 · model 33.1
Mkt 41
Model 33.1
20 pts4672 pts
18.1% of NFL games finish between 41 and 33.1. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
