The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
53%Baltimore RavensLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BAL by 1.1market BAL by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
46.5 pointsmarket 47.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Baltimore Ravens at 53% to win, with the market at BAL by 3.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Joe Burrow starting for Cincinnati Bengals, and the model prices that in.
BAL has the advantage in big plays: BAL explosive rush rate ranks #1, CIN defends it at #10; the other way CIN #30 into BAL's #2.
BAL has the advantage in rushing: BAL rushing ranks #2, CIN defends it at #11; the other way CIN #14 into BAL's #10.
Counterpoint: passing favours CIN. CIN passing ranks #5, BAL defends it at #17; the other way BAL #21 into CIN's #10. The pick still lands on BAL because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: CIN has 3 more days since its last game (BAL 7d, CIN 10d).
Form: CIN has the better last five games by 11.8 points a game (BAL -4.6, CIN +7.2).
Home field is with BAL, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it BAL by 1.1 against a market BAL by 3: 1.9 points of daylight in CIN's favour. The model's total is 46.5 against a line of 47.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BAL by 1.1 · market BAL by 3
ⓘMost of these areas favor CIN, but the model still picks BAL. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
CIN
Clear advantage
CIN passing ranks #5, BAL defends it at #17; the other way BAL #21 into CIN's #10.
Rushing game
BAL
Slight advantage
BAL rushing ranks #2, CIN defends it at #11; the other way CIN #14 into BAL's #10.
Third down & red zone
CIN
Slight advantage
CIN red-zone touchdown rate ranks #7, BAL defends it at #4; the other way BAL #30 into CIN's #5.
Big plays
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL explosive rush rate ranks #1, CIN defends it at #10; the other way CIN #30 into BAL's #2.
Pass protection & rush
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL sack rate ranks #19, CIN defends it at #29; the other way CIN #18 into BAL's #6.
Ball security
CIN
Slight advantage
CIN turnovers / game ranks #8, BAL defends it at #8; the other way BAL #18 into CIN's #6.
Form (last 5)
CIN
Clear advantage
BAL −4.6 per game over the last five, CIN +7.2.
Market
BAL
Slight advantage
Consensus has BAL by 3; the model says BAL by 1.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket BAL by 3 · model BAL by 1.1
Mkt BAL 3
Model BAL 1.1
← CIN by 28tieBAL by 28 →
2.4% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 47.5 · model 46.5
Mkt 47.5
Model 46.5
20 pts4672 pts
3.3% of NFL games finish between 47.5 and 46.5. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
