The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
59%Los Angeles RamsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
LAR by 3.2market LAR by 5.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
42.1 pointsmarket 42
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Los Angeles Rams at 59% to win, with the market at LAR by 5.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Cooper Rush starting for Dallas Cowboys, and the model prices that in.
Counterpoint: passing favours DAL. DAL passing ranks #9, LAR defends it at #25; the other way LAR #30 into DAL's #5. The pick still lands on LAR because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with LAR, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it LAR by 3.2 against a market LAR by 5.5: 2.3 points of daylight in DAL's favour. The model's total is 42.1 against a line of 42: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model LAR by 3.2 · market LAR by 5.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor DAL, but the model still picks LAR. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL passing ranks #9, LAR defends it at #25; the other way LAR #30 into DAL's #5.
Rushing game
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL rushing ranks #10, LAR defends it at #12; the other way LAR #18 into DAL's #4.
Third down & red zone
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL third-down conversion ranks #5, LAR defends it at #21; the other way LAR #18 into DAL's #15.
Big plays
DAL
Slight advantage
DAL explosive pass rate ranks #13, LAR defends it at #10; the other way LAR #27 into DAL's #5.
Pass protection & rush
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL sack rate ranks #4, LAR defends it at #19; the other way LAR #31 into DAL's #3.
Ball security
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL turnovers / game ranks #15, LAR defends it at #18; the other way LAR #23 into DAL's #1.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
LAR +0.4 per game over the last five, DAL +2.0.
Market
LAR
Clear advantage
Consensus has LAR by 5.5; the model says LAR by 3.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket LAR by 5.5 · model LAR by 3.2
Mkt LAR 5.5
Model LAR 3.2
← DAL by 28tieLAR by 28 →
4.3% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 42 · model 42.1
Mkt 42
Model 42.1
20 pts4672 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
