The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
63%Tennessee TitansSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TEN by 4.6market TEN by 1
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
42.1 pointsmarket 43
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Tennessee Titans at 63% to win, with the market at TEN by 1.
TEN has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: TEN red-zone touchdown rate ranks #6, WSH defends it at #9; the other way WSH #24 into TEN's #13.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours WSH. WSH sack rate ranks #26, TEN defends it at #27; the other way TEN #29 into WSH's #7. The pick still lands on TEN because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with WSH, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it TEN by 4.6 against a market TEN by 1: 3.6 points of daylight in TEN's favour. The model's total is 42.1 against a line of 43: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TEN by 4.6 · market TEN by 1
ⓘMost of these areas favor WSH, but the model still picks TEN. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
WSH
Clear advantage
WSH passing ranks #25, TEN defends it at #28; the other way TEN #22 into WSH's #8.
Rushing game
=
Even
TEN rushing ranks #26, WSH defends it at #3; the other way WSH #25 into TEN's #1.
Third down & red zone
TEN
Slight advantage
TEN red-zone touchdown rate ranks #6, WSH defends it at #9; the other way WSH #24 into TEN's #13.
Big plays
=
Even
TEN explosive rush rate ranks #18, WSH defends it at #6; the other way WSH #26 into TEN's #4.
Pass protection & rush
WSH
Clear advantage
WSH sack rate ranks #26, TEN defends it at #27; the other way TEN #29 into WSH's #7.
Ball security
TEN
Clear advantage
TEN turnovers / game ranks #14, WSH defends it at #29; the other way WSH #26 into TEN's #22.
Form (last 5)
WSH
Slight advantage
WSH −3.8 per game over the last five, TEN −8.0.
Market
=
Even
Consensus has TEN by 1; the model says TEN by 4.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket TEN by 1 · model TEN by 4.6
Mkt TEN 1
Model TEN 4.6
← TEN by 28tieWSH by 28 →
11.6% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 1, a number 4.5% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 43 · model 42.1
Mkt 43
Model 42.1
20 pts4672 pts
No whole-number total falls between 43 and 42.1. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
