The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
52%San Francisco 49ersLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
SF by 0.8market SF by 1
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
35.7 pointsmarket 42
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has San Francisco 49ers at 52% to win, with the market at SF by 1.
SF has the advantage in passing: SF passing ranks #2, LAR defends it at #25; the other way LAR #30 into SF's #3.
SF has the advantage in big plays: SF explosive pass rate ranks #1, LAR defends it at #10; the other way LAR #27 into SF's #7.
Home field is with SF, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it SF by 0.8 against a market SF by 1: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 35.7 against a line of 42: 6.3 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model SF by 0.8 · market SF by 1
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
SF
Clear advantage
SF passing ranks #2, LAR defends it at #25; the other way LAR #30 into SF's #3.
Rushing game
SF
Clear advantage
SF rushing ranks #12, LAR defends it at #12; the other way LAR #18 into SF's #2.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
LAR red-zone touchdown rate ranks #17, SF defends it at #20; the other way SF #20 into LAR's #1.
Big plays
SF
Clear advantage
SF explosive pass rate ranks #1, LAR defends it at #10; the other way LAR #27 into SF's #7.
Pass protection & rush
SF
Clear advantage
SF sack rate ranks #11, LAR defends it at #19; the other way LAR #31 into SF's #16.
Ball security
SF
Clear advantage
SF turnovers / game ranks #7, LAR defends it at #18; the other way LAR #23 into SF's #2.
Form (last 5)
SF
Slight advantage
SF +5.8 per game over the last five, LAR +0.4.
Market
=
Even
Consensus has SF by 1; the model says SF by 0.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket SF by 1 · model SF by 0.8
Mkt SF 1
Model SF 0.8
← LAR by 28tieSF by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. The market is on 1, a number 4.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 42 · model 35.7
Mkt 42
Model 35.7
20 pts4672 pts
17.3% of NFL games finish between 42 and 35.7. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
