The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
72%Green Bay PackersStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
GB by 8.0market GB by 10
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
42.7 pointsmarket 40.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Green Bay Packers at 72% to win, with the market at GB by 10.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Brian Hoyer starting for New England Patriots, and the model prices that in.
GB has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: GB third-down conversion ranks #16, NE defends it at #20; the other way NE #25 into GB's #9.
Counterpoint: big plays favours NE. NE explosive rush rate ranks #6, GB defends it at #26; the other way GB #15 into NE's #5. The pick still lands on GB because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: GB has the better last five games by 10.6 points a game (GB +9.4, NE -1.2).
Home field is with GB, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it GB by 8.0 against a market GB by 10: 2.0 points of daylight in NE's favour. The model's total is 42.7 against a line of 40.5: 2.2 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model GB by 8.0 · market GB by 10
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
NE
Slight advantage
NE passing ranks #23, GB defends it at #13; the other way GB #19 into NE's #2.
Rushing game
NE
Slight advantage
NE rushing ranks #22, GB defends it at #30; the other way GB #9 into NE's #8.
Third down & red zone
GB
Clear advantage
GB third-down conversion ranks #16, NE defends it at #20; the other way NE #25 into GB's #9.
Big plays
NE
Clear advantage
NE explosive rush rate ranks #6, GB defends it at #26; the other way GB #15 into NE's #5.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
GB sack rate ranks #7, NE defends it at #2; the other way NE #21 into GB's #15.
Ball security
GB
Slight advantage
GB turnovers / game ranks #13, NE defends it at #3; the other way NE #24 into GB's #7.
Form (last 5)
GB
Clear advantage
GB +9.4 per game over the last five, NE −1.2.
Market
GB
Clear advantage
Consensus has GB by 10; the model says GB by 8.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket GB by 10 · model GB by 8.0
Mkt GB 10
Model GB 8.0
← NE by 28tieGB by 28 →
1.0% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 10, a number 5.0% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 40.5 · model 42.7
Mkt 40.5
Model 42.7
20 pts4672 pts
5.1% of NFL games finish between 40.5 and 42.7. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
