The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
57%Minnesota VikingsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
MIN by 2.4market MIN by 4
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
37.1 pointsmarket 42
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Minnesota Vikings at 57% to win, with the market at MIN by 4.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Andy Dalton starting for New Orleans Saints, and the model prices that in.
MIN has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: MIN third-down conversion ranks #13, NO defends it at #24; the other way NO #15 into MIN's #12.
Counterpoint: big plays favours NO. NO explosive pass rate ranks #16, MIN defends it at #26; the other way MIN #24 into NO's #1. The pick still lands on MIN because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Neutral site, so no home-field boost either way.
ContextThe model makes it MIN by 2.4 against a market MIN by 4: 1.6 points of daylight in NO's favour. The model's total is 37.1 against a line of 42: 4.9 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model MIN by 2.4 · market MIN by 4
ⓘMost of these areas favor NO, but the model still picks MIN. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
NO
Clear advantage
NO passing ranks #17, MIN defends it at #27; the other way MIN #10 into NO's #4.
Rushing game
=
Even
NO rushing ranks #27, MIN defends it at #18; the other way MIN #29 into NO's #20.
Third down & red zone
MIN
Slight advantage
MIN third-down conversion ranks #13, NO defends it at #24; the other way NO #15 into MIN's #12.
Big plays
NO
Clear advantage
NO explosive pass rate ranks #16, MIN defends it at #26; the other way MIN #24 into NO's #1.
Pass protection & rush
NO
Slight advantage
NO sack rate ranks #20, MIN defends it at #23; the other way MIN #14 into NO's #4.
Ball security
MIN
Clear advantage
MIN turnovers / game ranks #20, NO defends it at #32; the other way NO #28 into MIN's #13.
Form (last 5)
NO
Slight advantage
NO +3.2 per game over the last five, MIN −1.8.
Market
MIN
Clear advantage
Consensus has MIN by 4; the model says MIN by 2.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket MIN by 4 · model MIN by 2.4
Mkt MIN 4
Model MIN 2.4
← MIN by 28tieNO by 28 →
6.8% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 4, a number 4.9% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 42 · model 37.1
Mkt 42
Model 37.1
20 pts4672 pts
11.2% of NFL games finish between 42 and 37.1. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
