The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
52%Miami DolphinsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
MIA by 0.6market CIN by 4
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
42.9 pointsmarket 48.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Miami Dolphins at 52% to win, with the market at CIN by 4.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Joe Burrow starting for Cincinnati Bengals, and the model prices that in.
MIA has the advantage in big plays: MIA explosive pass rate ranks #6, CIN defends it at #20; the other way CIN #20 into MIA's #12.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours CIN. CIN turnovers / game ranks #8, MIA defends it at #26; the other way MIA #19 into CIN's #6. The pick still lands on MIA because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: CIN has the better last five games by 9.0 points a game (CIN +7.2, MIA -1.8).
Home field is with CIN, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it MIA by 0.6 against a market CIN by 4: 4.6 points of daylight in MIA's favour. The model's total is 42.9 against a line of 48.5: 5.6 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model MIA by 0.6 · market CIN by 4
ⓘMost of these areas favor CIN, but the model still picks MIA. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
CIN
Slight advantage
CIN passing ranks #5, MIA defends it at #19; the other way MIA #8 into CIN's #10.
Rushing game
=
Even
MIA rushing ranks #16, CIN defends it at #11; the other way CIN #14 into MIA's #7.
Third down & red zone
CIN
Clear advantage
CIN third-down conversion ranks #4, MIA defends it at #27; the other way MIA #24 into CIN's #17.
Big plays
MIA
Clear advantage
MIA explosive pass rate ranks #6, CIN defends it at #20; the other way CIN #20 into MIA's #12.
Pass protection & rush
MIA
Clear advantage
MIA sack rate ranks #10, CIN defends it at #29; the other way CIN #18 into MIA's #17.
Ball security
CIN
Clear advantage
CIN turnovers / game ranks #8, MIA defends it at #26; the other way MIA #19 into CIN's #6.
Form (last 5)
CIN
Clear advantage
CIN +7.2 per game over the last five, MIA −1.8.
Market
CIN
Clear advantage
Consensus has CIN by 4; the model says MIA by 0.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket CIN by 4 · model MIA by 0.6
Mkt CIN 4
Model MIA 0.6
← MIA by 28tieCIN by 28 →
12.6% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 4, a number 4.9% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 48.5 · model 42.9
Mkt 48.5
Model 42.9
20 pts4672 pts
18.3% of NFL games finish between 48.5 and 42.9. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
