The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
65%Seattle SeahawksSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
SEA by 5.1market SEA by 1
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
49.4 pointsmarket 43
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Seattle Seahawks at 65% to win, with the market at SEA by 1.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Geno Smith starting for Seattle Seahawks, and the model prices that in.
SEA has the advantage in passing: SEA passing ranks #12, ATL defends it at #30; the other way ATL #20 into SEA's #23.
Counterpoint: rushing favours ATL. ATL rushing ranks #3, SEA defends it at #26; the other way SEA #21 into ATL's #25. The pick still lands on SEA because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with SEA, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it SEA by 5.1 against a market SEA by 1: 4.1 points of daylight in SEA's favour. The model's total is 49.4 against a line of 43: 6.4 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model SEA by 5.1 · market SEA by 1
ⓘMost of these areas favor ATL, but the model still picks SEA. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA passing ranks #12, ATL defends it at #30; the other way ATL #20 into SEA's #23.
Rushing game
ATL
Clear advantage
ATL rushing ranks #3, SEA defends it at #26; the other way SEA #21 into ATL's #25.
Third down & red zone
ATL
Slight advantage
ATL red-zone touchdown rate ranks #15, SEA defends it at #23; the other way SEA #27 into ATL's #17.
Big plays
=
Even
ATL explosive rush rate ranks #9, SEA defends it at #24; the other way SEA #11 into ATL's #18.
Pass protection & rush
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA sack rate ranks #23, ATL defends it at #32; the other way ATL #25 into SEA's #10.
Ball security
=
Even
SEA turnovers / game ranks #21, ATL defends it at #25; the other way ATL #10 into SEA's #14.
Form (last 5)
ATL
Slight advantage
SEA −4.0 per game over the last five, ATL 0.0.
Market
=
Even
Consensus has SEA by 1; the model says SEA by 5.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket SEA by 1 · model SEA by 5.1
Mkt SEA 1
Model SEA 5.1
← ATL by 28tieSEA by 28 →
14.4% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 1, a number 4.5% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 43 · model 49.4
Mkt 43
Model 49.4
20 pts4672 pts
17.0% of NFL games finish between 43 and 49.4. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
