The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
60%Cincinnati BengalsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
CIN by 3.4market CIN by 6.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
46.9 pointsmarket 46
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Cincinnati Bengals at 60% to win, with the market at CIN by 6.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Joe Burrow starting for Cincinnati Bengals, and the model prices that in.
CIN has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: CIN red-zone touchdown rate ranks #7, NYJ defends it at #3; the other way NYJ #31 into CIN's #5.
CIN has the advantage in passing: CIN passing ranks #5, NYJ defends it at #7; the other way NYJ #27 into CIN's #10.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours NYJ. NYJ sack rate ranks #15, CIN defends it at #29; the other way CIN #18 into NYJ's #9. The pick still lands on CIN because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: CIN has the better last five games by 17.0 points a game (NYJ -9.8, CIN +7.2).
Home field is with NYJ, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it CIN by 3.4 against a market CIN by 6.5: 3.1 points of daylight in NYJ's favour. The model's total is 46.9 against a line of 46: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model CIN by 3.4 · market CIN by 6.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
CIN
Clear advantage
CIN passing ranks #5, NYJ defends it at #7; the other way NYJ #27 into CIN's #10.
Rushing game
CIN
Clear advantage
CIN rushing ranks #14, NYJ defends it at #17; the other way NYJ #24 into CIN's #11.
Third down & red zone
CIN
Clear advantage
CIN red-zone touchdown rate ranks #7, NYJ defends it at #3; the other way NYJ #31 into CIN's #5.
Big plays
NYJ
Slight advantage
NYJ explosive pass rate ranks #26, CIN defends it at #20; the other way CIN #20 into NYJ's #2.
Pass protection & rush
NYJ
Clear advantage
NYJ sack rate ranks #15, CIN defends it at #29; the other way CIN #18 into NYJ's #9.
Ball security
CIN
Clear advantage
CIN turnovers / game ranks #8, NYJ defends it at #28; the other way NYJ #25 into CIN's #6.
Form (last 5)
CIN
Clear advantage
NYJ −9.8 per game over the last five, CIN +7.2.
Market
CIN
Clear advantage
Consensus has CIN by 6.5; the model says CIN by 3.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket CIN by 6.5 · model CIN by 3.4
Mkt CIN 6.5
Model CIN 3.4
← CIN by 28tieNYJ by 28 →
7.6% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 6. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 46 · model 46.9
Mkt 46
Model 46.9
20 pts4672 pts
No whole-number total falls between 46 and 46.9. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
