The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
53%Cincinnati BengalsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
CIN by 0.9market CIN by 7.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
46.2 pointsmarket 42
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Cincinnati Bengals at 53% to win, with the market at CIN by 7.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Cooper Rush starting for Dallas Cowboys, and the model prices that in.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours DAL. DAL sack rate ranks #4, CIN defends it at #29; the other way CIN #18 into DAL's #3. The pick still lands on CIN because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with DAL, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it CIN by 0.9 against a market CIN by 7.5: 6.6 points of daylight in DAL's favour. The model's total is 46.2 against a line of 42: 4.2 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model CIN by 0.9 · market CIN by 7.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor DAL, but the model still picks CIN. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
DAL passing ranks #9, CIN defends it at #10; the other way CIN #5 into DAL's #5.
Rushing game
DAL
Slight advantage
DAL rushing ranks #10, CIN defends it at #11; the other way CIN #14 into DAL's #4.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
DAL red-zone touchdown rate ranks #1, CIN defends it at #5; the other way CIN #7 into DAL's #6.
Big plays
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL explosive pass rate ranks #13, CIN defends it at #20; the other way CIN #20 into DAL's #5.
Pass protection & rush
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL sack rate ranks #4, CIN defends it at #29; the other way CIN #18 into DAL's #3.
Ball security
=
Even
CIN turnovers / game ranks #8, DAL defends it at #1; the other way DAL #15 into CIN's #6.
Form (last 5)
CIN
Slight advantage
DAL +2.0 per game over the last five, CIN +7.2.
Market
CIN
Clear advantage
Consensus has CIN by 7.5; the model says CIN by 0.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket CIN by 7.5 · model CIN by 0.9
Mkt CIN 7.5
Model CIN 0.9
← CIN by 28tieDAL by 28 →
22.9% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7 and 6. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 42 · model 46.2
Mkt 42
Model 46.2
20 pts4672 pts
12.2% of NFL games finish between 42 and 46.2. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
