The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
61%Pittsburgh SteelersSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
PIT by 3.9market NE by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
45.7 pointsmarket 40
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Pittsburgh Steelers at 61% to win, with the market at NE by 3.
PIT has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: PIT third-down conversion ranks #7, NE defends it at #20; the other way NE #25 into PIT's #16.
PIT has the advantage in rushing: PIT rushing ranks #4, NE defends it at #8; the other way NE #22 into PIT's #13.
Counterpoint: big plays favours NE. NE explosive pass rate ranks #5, PIT defends it at #30; the other way PIT #23 into NE's #18. The pick still lands on PIT because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with PIT, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it PIT by 3.9 against a market NE by 3: 6.9 points of daylight in PIT's favour. The model's total is 45.7 against a line of 40: 5.7 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model PIT by 3.9 · market NE by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
NE
Clear advantage
NE passing ranks #23, PIT defends it at #26; the other way PIT #18 into NE's #2.
Rushing game
PIT
Slight advantage
PIT rushing ranks #4, NE defends it at #8; the other way NE #22 into PIT's #13.
Third down & red zone
PIT
Clear advantage
PIT third-down conversion ranks #7, NE defends it at #20; the other way NE #25 into PIT's #16.
Big plays
NE
Clear advantage
NE explosive pass rate ranks #5, PIT defends it at #30; the other way PIT #23 into NE's #18.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
NE sack rate ranks #21, PIT defends it at #14; the other way PIT #12 into NE's #2.
Ball security
PIT
Slight advantage
PIT turnovers / game ranks #6, NE defends it at #3; the other way NE #24 into PIT's #12.
Form (last 5)
PIT
Clear advantage
PIT +5.2 per game over the last five, NE −1.2.
Market
NE
Slight advantage
Consensus has NE by 3; the model says PIT by 3.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket NE by 3 · model PIT by 3.9
Mkt NE 3
Model PIT 3.9
← NE by 28tiePIT by 28 →
17.1% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 40 · model 45.7
Mkt 40
Model 45.7
20 pts4672 pts
14.9% of NFL games finish between 40 and 45.7. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
