The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
55%New York GiantsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
NYG by 1.8market CAR by 1
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
39.6 pointsmarket 44
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has New York Giants at 55% to win, with the market at CAR by 1.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Daniel Jones starting for New York Giants, and the model prices that in.
NYG has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: NYG third-down conversion ranks #20, CAR defends it at #25; the other way CAR #30 into NYG's #7.
NYG has the advantage in passing: NYG passing ranks #11, CAR defends it at #22; the other way CAR #24 into NYG's #20.
Counterpoint: rushing favours CAR. CAR rushing ranks #7, NYG defends it at #32; the other way NYG #5 into CAR's #15. The pick still lands on NYG because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with NYG, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it NYG by 1.8 against a market CAR by 1: 2.8 points of daylight in NYG's favour. The model's total is 39.6 against a line of 44: 4.4 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model NYG by 1.8 · market CAR by 1
ⓘMost of these areas favor CAR, but the model still picks NYG. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
NYG
Clear advantage
NYG passing ranks #11, CAR defends it at #22; the other way CAR #24 into NYG's #20.
Rushing game
CAR
Clear advantage
CAR rushing ranks #7, NYG defends it at #32; the other way NYG #5 into CAR's #15.
Third down & red zone
NYG
Clear advantage
NYG third-down conversion ranks #20, CAR defends it at #25; the other way CAR #30 into NYG's #7.
Big plays
CAR
Slight advantage
CAR explosive pass rate ranks #3, NYG defends it at #13; the other way NYG #32 into CAR's #19.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
CAR sack rate ranks #22, NYG defends it at #22; the other way NYG #27 into CAR's #25.
Ball security
=
Even
NYG turnovers / game ranks #1, CAR defends it at #27; the other way CAR #9 into NYG's #30.
Form (last 5)
CAR
Slight advantage
NYG −1.0 per game over the last five, CAR +1.8.
Market
=
Even
Consensus has CAR by 1; the model says NYG by 1.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket CAR by 1 · model NYG by 1.8
Mkt CAR 1
Model NYG 1.8
← CAR by 28tieNYG by 28 →
2.6% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 1, a number 4.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 44 · model 39.6
Mkt 44
Model 39.6
20 pts4672 pts
12.1% of NFL games finish between 44 and 39.6. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
