The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
55%Washington CommandersLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
WSH by 1.6market WSH by 1
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
51.7 pointsmarket 48.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Washington Commanders at 55% to win, with the market at WSH by 1.
WSH has the advantage in rushing: WSH rushing ranks #25, DET defends it at #28; the other way DET #20 into WSH's #3.
WSH has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: WSH third-down conversion ranks #27, DET defends it at #30; the other way DET #14 into WSH's #1.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours DET. DET turnovers / game ranks #2, WSH defends it at #29; the other way WSH #26 into DET's #17. The pick still lands on WSH because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: DET has the better last five games by 10.8 points a game (DET +7.0, WSH -3.8).
Home field is with DET, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it WSH by 1.6 against a market WSH by 1: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 51.7 against a line of 48.5: 3.2 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model WSH by 1.6 · market WSH by 1
ⓘMost of these areas favor DET, but the model still picks WSH. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
DET passing ranks #4, WSH defends it at #8; the other way WSH #25 into DET's #29.
Rushing game
WSH
Clear advantage
WSH rushing ranks #25, DET defends it at #28; the other way DET #20 into WSH's #3.
Third down & red zone
WSH
Slight advantage
WSH third-down conversion ranks #27, DET defends it at #30; the other way DET #14 into WSH's #1.
Big plays
=
Even
WSH explosive rush rate ranks #26, DET defends it at #19; the other way DET #17 into WSH's #6.
Pass protection & rush
DET
Slight advantage
DET sack rate ranks #3, WSH defends it at #7; the other way WSH #26 into DET's #20.
Ball security
DET
Clear advantage
DET turnovers / game ranks #2, WSH defends it at #29; the other way WSH #26 into DET's #17.
Form (last 5)
DET
Clear advantage
DET +7.0 per game over the last five, WSH −3.8.
Market
=
Even
Consensus has WSH by 1; the model says WSH by 1.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket WSH by 1 · model WSH by 1.6
Mkt WSH 1
Model WSH 1.6
← WSH by 28tieDET by 28 →
No whole-number margin falls between 1 and 1.6, so the two numbers differ only on a push at 1. The market is on 1, a number 4.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 48.5 · model 51.7
Mkt 48.5
Model 51.7
20 pts4672 pts
8.8% of NFL games finish between 48.5 and 51.7. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
