The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
52%Dallas CowboysLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
DAL by 0.7market TB by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
53.2 pointsmarket 49.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Dallas Cowboys at 52% to win, with the market at TB by 2.5.
DAL has the advantage in rushing: DAL rushing ranks #10, TB defends it at #14; the other way TB #31 into DAL's #4.
DAL has the advantage in big plays: DAL explosive pass rate ranks #13, TB defends it at #11; the other way TB #29 into DAL's #5.
Form: DAL has the better last five games by 8.4 points a game (DAL +2.0, TB -6.4).
Home field is with DAL, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it DAL by 0.7 against a market TB by 2.5: 3.2 points of daylight in DAL's favour. The model's total is 53.2 against a line of 49.5: 3.7 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model DAL by 0.7 · market TB by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL passing ranks #9, TB defends it at #18; the other way TB #14 into DAL's #5.
Rushing game
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL rushing ranks #10, TB defends it at #14; the other way TB #31 into DAL's #4.
Third down & red zone
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL red-zone touchdown rate ranks #1, TB defends it at #30; the other way TB #25 into DAL's #6.
Big plays
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL explosive pass rate ranks #13, TB defends it at #11; the other way TB #29 into DAL's #5.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
DAL sack rate ranks #4, TB defends it at #11; the other way TB #1 into DAL's #3.
Ball security
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL turnovers / game ranks #15, TB defends it at #24; the other way TB #11 into DAL's #1.
Form (last 5)
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL +2.0 per game over the last five, TB −6.4.
Market
TB
Slight advantage
Consensus has TB by 2.5; the model says DAL by 0.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket TB by 2.5 · model DAL by 0.7
Mkt TB 2.5
Model DAL 0.7
← TB by 28tieDAL by 28 →
4.8% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 49.5 · model 53.2
Mkt 49.5
Model 53.2
20 pts4672 pts
9.9% of NFL games finish between 49.5 and 53.2. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
