The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
61%Los Angeles ChargersSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
LAC by 3.8market LAC by 3.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
55.9 pointsmarket 52.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Los Angeles Chargers at 61% to win, with the market at LAC by 3.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Derek Carr starting for Las Vegas Raiders, and the model prices that in.
LAC has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: LAC red-zone touchdown rate ranks #18, LV defends it at #32; the other way LV #26 into LAC's #12.
LAC has the advantage in passing: LAC passing ranks #13, LV defends it at #31; the other way LV #15 into LAC's #9.
Counterpoint: big plays favours LV. LV explosive rush rate ranks #7, LAC defends it at #25; the other way LAC #29 into LV's #14. The pick still lands on LAC because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: LAC has the better last five games by 11.2 points a game (LAC +7.4, LV -3.8).
Home field is with LAC, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it LAC by 3.8 against a market LAC by 3.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 55.9 against a line of 52.5: 3.4 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model LAC by 3.8 · market LAC by 3.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
LAC
Clear advantage
LAC passing ranks #13, LV defends it at #31; the other way LV #15 into LAC's #9.
Rushing game
LV
Clear advantage
LV rushing ranks #13, LAC defends it at #31; the other way LAC #17 into LV's #16.
Third down & red zone
LAC
Clear advantage
LAC red-zone touchdown rate ranks #18, LV defends it at #32; the other way LV #26 into LAC's #12.
Big plays
LV
Clear advantage
LV explosive rush rate ranks #7, LAC defends it at #25; the other way LAC #29 into LV's #14.
Pass protection & rush
LAC
Clear advantage
LAC sack rate ranks #6, LV defends it at #30; the other way LV #8 into LAC's #12.
Ball security
LAC
Clear advantage
LAC turnovers / game ranks #4, LV defends it at #31; the other way LV #17 into LAC's #9.
Form (last 5)
LAC
Clear advantage
LAC +7.4 per game over the last five, LV −3.8.
Market
LAC
Clear advantage
Consensus has LAC by 3.5; the model says LAC by 3.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket LAC by 3.5 · model LAC by 3.8
Mkt LAC 3.5
Model LAC 3.8
← LV by 28tieLAC by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 52.5 · model 55.9
Mkt 52.5
Model 55.9
20 pts4672 pts
5.7% of NFL games finish between 52.5 and 55.9. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
