The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
73%Washington CommandersStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
WSH by 8.4market WSH by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
40.8 pointsmarket 43.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Washington Commanders at 73% to win, with the market at WSH by 3.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Trevor Lawrence starting for Jacksonville Jaguars, and the model prices that in.
WSH has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: WSH third-down conversion ranks #27, JAX defends it at #29; the other way JAX #10 into WSH's #1.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours JAX. JAX turnovers / game ranks #29, WSH defends it at #29; the other way WSH #26 into JAX's #10. The pick still lands on WSH because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: JAX has the better last five games by 12.2 points a game (WSH -3.8, JAX +8.4).
Home field is with WSH, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it WSH by 8.4 against a market WSH by 3: 5.4 points of daylight in WSH's favour. The model's total is 40.8 against a line of 43.5: 2.7 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model WSH by 8.4 · market WSH by 3
ⓘMost of these areas favor JAX, but the model still picks WSH. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
JAX passing ranks #7, WSH defends it at #8; the other way WSH #25 into JAX's #24.
Rushing game
=
Even
JAX rushing ranks #19, WSH defends it at #3; the other way WSH #25 into JAX's #6.
Third down & red zone
WSH
Slight advantage
WSH third-down conversion ranks #27, JAX defends it at #29; the other way JAX #10 into WSH's #1.
Big plays
JAX
Slight advantage
JAX explosive pass rate ranks #15, WSH defends it at #16; the other way WSH #22 into JAX's #15.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
WSH sack rate ranks #26, JAX defends it at #28; the other way JAX #5 into WSH's #7.
Ball security
JAX
Clear advantage
JAX turnovers / game ranks #29, WSH defends it at #29; the other way WSH #26 into JAX's #10.
Form (last 5)
JAX
Clear advantage
WSH −3.8 per game over the last five, JAX +8.4.
Market
WSH
Slight advantage
Consensus has WSH by 3; the model says WSH by 8.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket WSH by 3 · model WSH by 8.4
Mkt WSH 3
Model WSH 8.4
← JAX by 28tieWSH by 28 →
15.0% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 6. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 43.5 · model 40.8
Mkt 43.5
Model 40.8
20 pts4672 pts
8.6% of NFL games finish between 43.5 and 40.8. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
