The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
55%Los Angeles RamsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
LAR by 1.7market BUF by 1
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
49.1 pointsmarket 51.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Los Angeles Rams at 55% to win, with the market at BUF by 1.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Matthew Stafford starting for Los Angeles Rams, and the model prices that in.
Counterpoint: passing favours BUF. BUF passing ranks #3, LAR defends it at #25; the other way LAR #30 into BUF's #12. The pick still lands on LAR because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with LAR, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it LAR by 1.7 against a market BUF by 1: 2.7 points of daylight in LAR's favour. The model's total is 49.1 against a line of 51.5: 2.4 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model LAR by 1.7 · market BUF by 1
ⓘMost of these areas favor BUF, but the model still picks LAR. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
BUF
Clear advantage
BUF passing ranks #3, LAR defends it at #25; the other way LAR #30 into BUF's #12.
Rushing game
BUF
Slight advantage
BUF rushing ranks #15, LAR defends it at #12; the other way LAR #18 into BUF's #5.
Third down & red zone
BUF
Clear advantage
BUF third-down conversion ranks #1, LAR defends it at #21; the other way LAR #18 into BUF's #5.
Big plays
=
Even
LAR explosive rush rate ranks #24, BUF defends it at #27; the other way BUF #16 into LAR's #3.
Pass protection & rush
BUF
Clear advantage
BUF sack rate ranks #9, LAR defends it at #19; the other way LAR #31 into BUF's #18.
Ball security
=
Even
BUF turnovers / game ranks #31, LAR defends it at #18; the other way LAR #23 into BUF's #5.
Form (last 5)
BUF
Slight advantage
LAR +0.4 per game over the last five, BUF +4.6.
Market
=
Even
Consensus has BUF by 1; the model says LAR by 1.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket BUF by 1 · model LAR by 1.7
Mkt BUF 1
Model LAR 1.7
← BUF by 28tieLAR by 28 →
2.6% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 1, a number 4.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 51.5 · model 49.1
Mkt 51.5
Model 49.1
20 pts4672 pts
6.5% of NFL games finish between 51.5 and 49.1. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
