The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
54%Seattle SeahawksLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
SEA by 1.4market SEA by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
38.7 pointsmarket 46
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Seattle Seahawks at 54% to win, with the market at SEA by 2.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Colt McCoy starting for Arizona Cardinals, and the model prices that in.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Form: SEA has the better last five games by 18.2 points a game (SEA +7.8, ARI -10.4).
Home field is with SEA, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it SEA by 1.4 against a market SEA by 2.5: 1.1 points of daylight in ARI's favour. The model's total is 38.7 against a line of 46: 7.3 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model SEA by 1.4 · market SEA by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Rushing game
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Third down & red zone
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Big plays
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Pass protection & rush
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Ball security
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Form (last 5)
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA +7.8 per game over the last five, ARI −10.4.
Market
SEA
Slight advantage
Consensus has SEA by 2.5; the model says SEA by 1.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket SEA by 2.5 · model SEA by 1.4
Mkt SEA 2.5
Model SEA 1.4
← ARI by 28tieSEA by 28 →
2.4% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 46 · model 38.7
Mkt 46
Model 38.7
20 pts4672 pts
20.8% of NFL games finish between 46 and 38.7. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
