The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
79%Los Angeles RamsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
LAR by 11.1market LAR by 17
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
45.8 pointsmarket 47
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Los Angeles Rams at 79% to win, with the market at LAR by 17.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Davis Mills starting for Houston Texans, and the model prices that in.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Form: LAR has the better last five games by 8.4 points a game (HOU -2.6, LAR +5.8).
Home field is with HOU, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it LAR by 11.1 against a market LAR by 17: 5.9 points of daylight in HOU's favour. The model's total is 45.8 against a line of 47: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model LAR by 11.1 · market LAR by 17
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
–
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Rushing game
–
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Third down & red zone
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Big plays
–
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Pass protection & rush
–
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Ball security
–
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Form (last 5)
LAR
Clear advantage
HOU −2.6 per game over the last five, LAR +5.8.
Market
LAR
Clear advantage
Consensus has LAR by 17; the model says LAR by 11.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket LAR by 17 · model LAR by 11.1
Mkt LAR 17
Model LAR 11.1
← LAR by 28tieHOU by 28 →
5.9% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 17, a number 3.4% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 14. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 47 · model 45.8
Mkt 47
Model 45.8
20 pts4672 pts
2.4% of NFL games finish between 47 and 45.8. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
