The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
86%Buffalo BillsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BUF by 14.9market BUF by 15
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
49.9 pointsmarket 48.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Buffalo Bills at 86% to win, with the market at BUF by 15.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Rest: BUF has 6 more days since its last game (BUF 13d, MIA 7d).
Form: BUF has the better last five games by 10.8 points a game (BUF +13.4, MIA +2.6).
Home field is with BUF, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it BUF by 14.9 against a market BUF by 15: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 49.9 against a line of 48.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BUF by 14.9 · market BUF by 15
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
–
—
not priced
No tendency data yet.
Rushing game
–
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Third down & red zone
–
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Big plays
–
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Pass protection & rush
–
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Ball security
–
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Form (last 5)
BUF
Clear advantage
BUF +13.4 per game over the last five, MIA +2.6.
Market
BUF
Clear advantage
Consensus has BUF by 15; the model says BUF by 14.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket BUF by 15 · model BUF by 14.9
Mkt BUF 15
Model BUF 14.9
← MIA by 28tieBUF by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. The market is on 15, a number 1.6% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 48.5 · model 49.9
Mkt 48.5
Model 49.9
20 pts4672 pts
2.3% of NFL games finish between 48.5 and 49.9. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
