The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
57%Carolina PanthersLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
CAR by 2.4market CAR by 8
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
47.2 pointsmarket 43
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Carolina Panthers at 57% to win, with the market at CAR by 8.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Davis Mills starting for Houston Texans, and the model prices that in.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Form: HOU has the better last five games by 14.0 points a game (HOU -2.6, CAR -16.6).
Home field is with HOU, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it CAR by 2.4 against a market CAR by 8: 5.6 points of daylight in HOU's favour. The model's total is 47.2 against a line of 43: 4.2 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model CAR by 2.4 · market CAR by 8
ⓘMost of these areas favor HOU, but the model still picks CAR. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
–
—
not priced
No tendency data yet.
Rushing game
–
—
not priced
No tendency data yet.
Third down & red zone
–
—
not priced
No tendency data yet.
Big plays
–
—
not priced
No tendency data yet.
Pass protection & rush
–
—
not priced
No tendency data yet.
Ball security
–
—
not priced
No tendency data yet.
Form (last 5)
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU −2.6 per game over the last five, CAR −16.6.
Market
CAR
Clear advantage
Consensus has CAR by 8; the model says CAR by 2.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket CAR by 8 · model CAR by 2.4
Mkt CAR 8
Model CAR 2.4
← CAR by 28tieHOU by 28 →
18.5% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 8, a number 4.2% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7 and 6. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 43 · model 47.2
Mkt 43
Model 47.2
20 pts4672 pts
12.0% of NFL games finish between 43 and 47.2. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
