Titans vs Seahawks Prediction — NFL Week 2, Sep 19, 2021

No winner call was locked for Titans vs Seahawks before kickoff.

Tennessee Titans

12-6

Modelpredicted

22 – 29

Sun, Sep 19, 4:25 PM ET

Lumen Field · 62° · 14 mph wind

Final

Seattle Seahawks

7-10

MarketSpread SEA -6.5Total 53.5Moneyline TEN +247 · SEA -286

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The pick

backtest · not locked

Win chance

68%Seattle SeahawksSolid

No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.

Model margin

SEA by 6.3market SEA by 6.5

Model total

51.0 pointsmarket 53.5

Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.

Why the model calls it

The model has Seattle Seahawks at 68% to win, with the market at SEA by 6.5.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Home field is with SEA, which supports the pick.

ContextThe model makes it SEA by 6.3 against a market SEA by 6.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 51.0 against a line of 53.5: 2.5 points below it. The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.

Matchup context: who has the advantage

Model SEA by 6.3 · market SEA by 6.5

ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.

Passing game

—

not priced

No tendency data yet.

Rushing game

—

not priced

No tendency data yet.

Third down & red zone

—

not priced

No tendency data yet.

Big plays

—

not priced

No tendency data yet.

Pass protection & rush

—

not priced

No tendency data yet.

Ball security

—

not priced

No tendency data yet.

Form (last 5)

Even

SEA +7.8 per game over the last five, TEN +5.6.

Market

SEA

Clear advantage

Consensus has SEA by 6.5; the model says SEA by 6.3.

the market, for comparison

Where the lines sit

3,893 NFL games since 2012

Marginmarket SEA by 6.5 · model SEA by 6.3

Mkt SEA 6.5

Model SEA 6.3

← TEN by 28tieSEA by 28 →

The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).

Totalmarket 53.5 · model 51.0

Mkt 53.5

Model 51.0

20 pts4672 pts

3.4% of NFL games finish between 53.5 and 51.0. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.

The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

Titans vs Seahawks Prediction — NFL Week 2, Sep 19, 2021

The pickiThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.

Why the model calls itiThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.

Matchup context: who has the advantageiWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.

Where the lines sitiWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.

Titans vs Seahawks Prediction — NFL Week 2, Sep 19, 2021

The pickiThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.

Why the model calls itiThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.

Matchup context: who has the advantageiWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.

Where the lines sitiWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.

The pick

Why the model calls it

Matchup context: who has the advantage

Where the lines sit

The pick

Why the model calls it

Matchup context: who has the advantage

Where the lines sit