The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
61%Kansas City ChiefsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
KC by 3.6market KC by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
53.6 pointsmarket 54.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Kansas City Chiefs at 61% to win, with the market at KC by 3.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Form: BUF has the better last five games by 15.8 points a game (KC -3.4, BUF +12.4).
Home field is with KC, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it KC by 3.6 against a market KC by 3: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 53.6 against a line of 54.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model KC by 3.6 · market KC by 3
ⓘMost of these areas favor BUF, but the model still picks KC. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Rushing game
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Third down & red zone
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Big plays
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Pass protection & rush
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Ball security
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Form (last 5)
BUF
Clear advantage
KC −3.4 per game over the last five, BUF +12.4.
Market
KC
Slight advantage
Consensus has KC by 3; the model says KC by 3.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket KC by 3 · model KC by 3.6
Mkt KC 3
Model KC 3.6
← BUF by 28tieKC by 28 →
No whole-number margin falls between 3 and 3.6, so the two numbers differ only on a push at 3. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 54.5 · model 53.6
Mkt 54.5
Model 53.6
20 pts4672 pts
2.1% of NFL games finish between 54.5 and 53.6. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
