The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
87%Kansas City ChiefsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
KC by 15.5market KC by 11
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
54.1 pointsmarket 54
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Kansas City Chiefs at 87% to win, with the market at KC by 11.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Home field is with KC, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it KC by 15.5 against a market KC by 11: 4.5 points of daylight in KC's favour. The model's total is 54.1 against a line of 54: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model KC by 15.5 · market KC by 11
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Rushing game
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Third down & red zone
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Big plays
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Pass protection & rush
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Ball security
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Form (last 5)
KC
Slight advantage
KC −3.4 per game over the last five, ATL −6.4.
Market
KC
Clear advantage
Consensus has KC by 11; the model says KC by 15.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket KC by 11 · model KC by 15.5
Mkt KC 11
Model KC 15.5
← ATL by 28tieKC by 28 →
6.0% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 11, a number 2.2% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 14. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 54 · model 54.1
Mkt 54
Model 54.1
20 pts4672 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
