The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
60%Houston TexansLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
HOU by 3.3market HOU by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
48.2 pointsmarket 52.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Houston Texans at 60% to win, with the market at HOU by 3.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Matthew Stafford starting for Detroit Lions, and the model prices that in.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Home field is with DET, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it HOU by 3.3 against a market HOU by 3: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 48.2 against a line of 52.5: 4.3 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model HOU by 3.3 · market HOU by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
–
—
not priced
No tendency data yet.
Rushing game
–
—
not priced
No tendency data yet.
Third down & red zone
–
—
not priced
No tendency data yet.
Big plays
–
—
not priced
No tendency data yet.
Pass protection & rush
–
—
not priced
No tendency data yet.
Ball security
–
—
not priced
No tendency data yet.
Form (last 5)
HOU
Slight advantage
DET −13.2 per game over the last five, HOU −10.2.
Market
HOU
Slight advantage
Consensus has HOU by 3; the model says HOU by 3.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket HOU by 3 · model HOU by 3.3
Mkt HOU 3
Model HOU 3.3
← HOU by 28tieDET by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 52.5 · model 48.2
Mkt 52.5
Model 48.2
20 pts4672 pts
10.9% of NFL games finish between 52.5 and 48.2. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
