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⌘K
No winner call was locked for Jets vs Chiefs before kickoff.
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
No whole-number margin falls between 20 and 21.0, so the two numbers differ only on a push at 20. The market is on 20, a number 2.1% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
8.4% of NFL games finish between 49 and 45.6. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
