The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
50%New York JetsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
NYJ by 0.1market ARI by 7
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
48.3 pointsmarket 48.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has New York Jets at 50% to win, with the market at ARI by 7.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Rest: NYJ has 3 more days since its last game (NYJ 10d, ARI 7d).
Form: ARI has the better last five games by 8.2 points a game (NYJ -8.8, ARI -0.6).
Home field is with NYJ, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it NYJ by 0.1 against a market ARI by 7: 7.1 points of daylight in NYJ's favour. The model's total is 48.3 against a line of 48.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model NYJ by 0.1 · market ARI by 7
ⓘMost of these areas favor ARI, but the model still picks NYJ. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Rushing game
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Third down & red zone
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Big plays
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Pass protection & rush
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Ball security
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Form (last 5)
ARI
Clear advantage
NYJ −8.8 per game over the last five, ARI −0.6.
Market
ARI
Clear advantage
Consensus has ARI by 7; the model says NYJ by 0.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket ARI by 7 · model NYJ by 0.1
Mkt ARI 7
Model NYJ 0.1
← ARI by 28tieNYJ by 28 →
19.2% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 7, a number 8.6% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 6. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 48.5 · model 48.3
Mkt 48.5
Model 48.3
20 pts4672 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
