The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
63%Seattle SeahawksSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
SEA by 4.5market SEA by 4.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
38.3 pointsmarket 45.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Seattle Seahawks at 63% to win, with the market at SEA by 4.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Drake Maye starting for New England Patriots, and the model prices that in.
SEA has the advantage in rushing: SEA rushing ranks #21, NE defends it at #12; the other way NE #27 into SEA's #1.
SEA has the advantage in big plays: SEA explosive rush rate ranks #7, NE defends it at #10; the other way NE #21 into SEA's #1.
Form: SEA has the better last five games by 8.4 points a game (NE +8.0, SEA +16.4).
Neutral site, so no home-field boost either way.
ContextThe model makes it SEA by 4.5 against a market SEA by 4.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 38.3 against a line of 45.5: 7.2 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model SEA by 4.5 · market SEA by 4.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
NE passing ranks #3, SEA defends it at #6; the other way SEA #7 into NE's #5.
Rushing game
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA rushing ranks #21, NE defends it at #12; the other way NE #27 into SEA's #1.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
SEA red-zone touchdown rate ranks #20, NE defends it at #15; the other way NE #21 into SEA's #6.
Big plays
SEA
Slight advantage
SEA explosive rush rate ranks #7, NE defends it at #10; the other way NE #21 into SEA's #1.
Pass protection & rush
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA sack rate ranks #11, NE defends it at #16; the other way NE #28 into SEA's #11.
Ball security
=
Even
NE turnovers / game ranks #16, SEA defends it at #4; the other way SEA #26 into NE's #9.
Form (last 5)
SEA
Clear advantage
NE +8.0 per game over the last five, SEA +16.4.
Market
SEA
Clear advantage
Consensus has SEA by 4.5; the model says SEA by 4.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket SEA by 4.5 · model SEA by 4.5
Mkt SEA 4.5
Model SEA 4.5
← SEA by 28tieNE by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 45.5 · model 38.3
Mkt 45.5
Model 38.3
20 pts4672 pts
20.8% of NFL games finish between 45.5 and 38.3. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
