The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
54%Jacksonville JaguarsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
JAX by 1.4market JAX by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
50.4 pointsmarket 51.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Jacksonville Jaguars at 54% to win, with the market at JAX by 1.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Josh Allen starting for Buffalo Bills, and the model prices that in.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Form: JAX has the better last five games by 10.0 points a game (JAX +15.8, BUF +5.8).
Home field is with JAX, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it JAX by 1.4 against a market JAX by 1.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 50.4 against a line of 51.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model JAX by 1.4 · market JAX by 1.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
JAX passing ranks #10, BUF defends it at #10; the other way BUF #4 into JAX's #4.
Rushing game
=
Even
JAX rushing ranks #14, BUF defends it at #29; the other way BUF #1 into JAX's #16.
Third down & red zone
BUF
Slight advantage
BUF red-zone touchdown rate ranks #2, JAX defends it at #24; the other way JAX #8 into BUF's #19.
Big plays
=
Even
JAX explosive rush rate ranks #23, BUF defends it at #30; the other way BUF #3 into JAX's #7.
Pass protection & rush
BUF
Slight advantage
BUF sack rate ranks #19, JAX defends it at #30; the other way JAX #16 into BUF's #19.
Ball security
JAX
Clear advantage
JAX turnovers / game ranks #13, BUF defends it at #14; the other way BUF #18 into JAX's #3.
Form (last 5)
JAX
Clear advantage
JAX +15.8 per game over the last five, BUF +5.8.
Market
JAX
Slight advantage
Consensus has JAX by 1.5; the model says JAX by 1.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket JAX by 1.5 · model JAX by 1.4
Mkt JAX 1.5
Model JAX 1.4
← BUF by 28tieJAX by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 51.5 · model 50.4
Mkt 51.5
Model 50.4
20 pts4672 pts
3.9% of NFL games finish between 51.5 and 50.4. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
