The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
52%Chicago BearsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
CHI by 0.8market GB by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
45.7 pointsmarket 45.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Chicago Bears at 52% to win, with the market at GB by 2.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Caleb Williams starting for Chicago Bears, and the model prices that in.
CHI has the advantage in rushing: CHI rushing ranks #6, GB defends it at #17; the other way GB #22 into CHI's #19.
Counterpoint: big plays favours GB. GB explosive pass rate ranks #3, CHI defends it at #32; the other way CHI #7 into GB's #10. The pick still lands on CHI because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: CHI has the better last five games by 9.6 points a game (CHI +0.0, GB -9.6).
Home field is with CHI, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it CHI by 0.8 against a market GB by 2.5: 3.3 points of daylight in CHI's favour. The model's total is 45.7 against a line of 45.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model CHI by 0.8 · market GB by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
GB passing ranks #1, CHI defends it at #19; the other way CHI #9 into GB's #22.
Rushing game
CHI
Slight advantage
CHI rushing ranks #6, GB defends it at #17; the other way GB #22 into CHI's #19.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
GB red-zone touchdown rate ranks #11, CHI defends it at #21; the other way CHI #16 into GB's #16.
Big plays
GB
Clear advantage
GB explosive pass rate ranks #3, CHI defends it at #32; the other way CHI #7 into GB's #10.
Pass protection & rush
CHI
Slight advantage
CHI sack rate ranks #1, GB defends it at #25; the other way GB #8 into CHI's #21.
Ball security
CHI
Clear advantage
CHI turnovers / game ranks #4, GB defends it at #26; the other way GB #2 into CHI's #1.
Form (last 5)
CHI
Clear advantage
CHI 0.0 per game over the last five, GB −9.6.
Market
GB
Slight advantage
Consensus has GB by 2.5; the model says CHI by 0.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket GB by 2.5 · model CHI by 0.8
Mkt GB 2.5
Model CHI 0.8
← GB by 28tieCHI by 28 →
4.8% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 45.5 · model 45.7
Mkt 45.5
Model 45.7
20 pts4672 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
