The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
53%San Francisco 49ersLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
SF by 0.9market SEA by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
57.5 pointsmarket 47.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has San Francisco 49ers at 53% to win, with the market at SEA by 2.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Sam Darnold starting for Seattle Seahawks, and the model prices that in.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours SEA. SEA turnovers / game ranks #26, SF defends it at #28; the other way SF #31 into SEA's #4. The pick still lands on SF because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: SEA has the better last five games by 19.6 points a game (SF -3.2, SEA +16.4).
Home field is with SF, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it SF by 0.9 against a market SEA by 2.5: 3.4 points of daylight in SF's favour. The model's total is 57.5 against a line of 47.5: 10.0 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model SF by 0.9 · market SEA by 2.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor SEA, but the model still picks SF. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA passing ranks #7, SF defends it at #25; the other way SF #8 into SEA's #6.
Rushing game
SEA
Slight advantage
SEA rushing ranks #21, SF defends it at #23; the other way SF #13 into SEA's #1.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
SF red-zone touchdown rate ranks #4, SEA defends it at #6; the other way SEA #20 into SF's #14.
Big plays
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA explosive rush rate ranks #7, SF defends it at #8; the other way SF #25 into SEA's #1.
Pass protection & rush
SEA
Slight advantage
SEA sack rate ranks #11, SF defends it at #32; the other way SF #4 into SEA's #11.
Ball security
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA turnovers / game ranks #26, SF defends it at #28; the other way SF #31 into SEA's #4.
Form (last 5)
SEA
Clear advantage
SF −3.2 per game over the last five, SEA +16.4.
Market
SEA
Slight advantage
Consensus has SEA by 2.5; the model says SF by 0.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket SEA by 2.5 · model SF by 0.9
Mkt SEA 2.5
Model SF 0.9
← SEA by 28tieSF by 28 →
4.8% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 47.5 · model 57.5
Mkt 47.5
Model 57.5
20 pts4672 pts
22.8% of NFL games finish between 47.5 and 57.5. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
