The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
60%Dallas CowboysLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
DAL by 3.3market DAL by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
59.3 pointsmarket 50.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Dallas Cowboys at 60% to win, with the market at DAL by 3.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours NYG. NYG turnovers / game ranks #10, DAL defends it at #30; the other way DAL #19 into NYG's #25. The pick still lands on DAL because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: DAL has 3 more days since its last game (NYG 7d, DAL 10d).
Form: NYG has the better last five games by 12.2 points a game (NYG +2.4, DAL -9.8).
Home field is with NYG, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it DAL by 3.3 against a market DAL by 3: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 59.3 against a line of 50.5: 8.8 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model DAL by 3.3 · market DAL by 3
ⓘMost of these areas favor NYG, but the model still picks DAL. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
NYG passing ranks #16, DAL defends it at #31; the other way DAL #6 into NYG's #17.
Rushing game
=
Even
DAL rushing ranks #8, NYG defends it at #32; the other way NYG #10 into DAL's #30.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
DAL red-zone touchdown rate ranks #12, NYG defends it at #26; the other way NYG #28 into DAL's #30.
Big plays
=
Even
NYG explosive pass rate ranks #10, DAL defends it at #27; the other way DAL #12 into NYG's #20.
Pass protection & rush
DAL
Slight advantage
DAL sack rate ranks #6, NYG defends it at #17; the other way NYG #23 into DAL's #26.
Ball security
NYG
Slight advantage
NYG turnovers / game ranks #10, DAL defends it at #30; the other way DAL #19 into NYG's #25.
Form (last 5)
NYG
Clear advantage
NYG +2.4 per game over the last five, DAL −9.8.
Market
DAL
Slight advantage
Consensus has DAL by 3; the model says DAL by 3.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket DAL by 3 · model DAL by 3.3
Mkt DAL 3
Model DAL 3.3
← DAL by 28tieNYG by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 50.5 · model 59.3
Mkt 50.5
Model 59.3
20 pts4672 pts
18.6% of NFL games finish between 50.5 and 59.3. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
