The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
78%New England PatriotsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
NE by 10.6market NE by 14
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
46.1 pointsmarket 44.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has New England Patriots at 78% to win, with the market at NE by 14.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Quinn Ewers starting for Miami Dolphins, and the model prices that in.
NE has the advantage in passing: NE passing ranks #3, MIA defends it at #27; the other way MIA #23 into NE's #5.
NE has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: NE third-down conversion ranks #10, MIA defends it at #18; the other way MIA #27 into NE's #7.
Counterpoint: rushing favours MIA. MIA rushing ranks #9, NE defends it at #12; the other way NE #27 into MIA's #20. The pick still lands on NE because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: NE has the better last five games by 15.6 points a game (NE +8.0, MIA -7.6).
Home field is with NE, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it NE by 10.6 against a market NE by 14: 3.4 points of daylight in MIA's favour. The model's total is 46.1 against a line of 44.5: 1.6 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model NE by 10.6 · market NE by 14
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
NE
Clear advantage
NE passing ranks #3, MIA defends it at #27; the other way MIA #23 into NE's #5.
Rushing game
MIA
Slight advantage
MIA rushing ranks #9, NE defends it at #12; the other way NE #27 into MIA's #20.
Third down & red zone
NE
Clear advantage
NE third-down conversion ranks #10, MIA defends it at #18; the other way MIA #27 into NE's #7.
Big plays
NE
Clear advantage
NE explosive pass rate ranks #2, MIA defends it at #24; the other way MIA #13 into NE's #3.
Pass protection & rush
MIA
Slight advantage
MIA sack rate ranks #21, NE defends it at #16; the other way NE #28 into MIA's #14.
Ball security
NE
Clear advantage
NE turnovers / game ranks #16, MIA defends it at #21; the other way MIA #27 into NE's #9.
Form (last 5)
NE
Clear advantage
NE +8.0 per game over the last five, MIA −7.6.
Market
NE
Clear advantage
Consensus has NE by 14; the model says NE by 10.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket NE by 14 · model NE by 10.6
Mkt NE 14
Model NE 10.6
← MIA by 28tieNE by 28 →
3.6% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 14, a number 5.1% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 44.5 · model 46.1
Mkt 44.5
Model 46.1
20 pts4672 pts
4.8% of NFL games finish between 44.5 and 46.1. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
