The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
63%San Francisco 49ersSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
SF by 4.5market SF by 3.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
52.8 pointsmarket 51.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has San Francisco 49ers at 63% to win, with the market at SF by 3.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Caleb Williams starting for Chicago Bears, and the model prices that in.
SF has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: SF red-zone touchdown rate ranks #4, CHI defends it at #21; the other way CHI #16 into SF's #14.
SF has the advantage in big plays: SF explosive pass rate ranks #15, CHI defends it at #32; the other way CHI #7 into SF's #6.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours CHI. CHI turnovers / game ranks #4, SF defends it at #28; the other way SF #31 into CHI's #1. The pick still lands on SF because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: CHI has 2 more days since its last game (SF 6d, CHI 8d).
Home field is with SF, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it SF by 4.5 against a market SF by 3.5: 1.0 points of daylight in SF's favour. The model's total is 52.8 against a line of 51.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model SF by 4.5 · market SF by 3.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor CHI, but the model still picks SF. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
CHI passing ranks #9, SF defends it at #25; the other way SF #8 into CHI's #19.
Rushing game
CHI
Slight advantage
CHI rushing ranks #6, SF defends it at #23; the other way SF #13 into CHI's #19.
Third down & red zone
SF
Slight advantage
SF red-zone touchdown rate ranks #4, CHI defends it at #21; the other way CHI #16 into SF's #14.
Big plays
SF
Slight advantage
SF explosive pass rate ranks #15, CHI defends it at #32; the other way CHI #7 into SF's #6.
Pass protection & rush
CHI
Slight advantage
CHI sack rate ranks #1, SF defends it at #32; the other way SF #4 into CHI's #21.
Ball security
CHI
Clear advantage
CHI turnovers / game ranks #4, SF defends it at #28; the other way SF #31 into CHI's #1.
Form (last 5)
CHI
Slight advantage
SF −3.2 per game over the last five, CHI 0.0.
Market
SF
Clear advantage
Consensus has SF by 3.5; the model says SF by 4.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket SF by 3.5 · model SF by 4.5
Mkt SF 3.5
Model SF 4.5
← CHI by 28tieSF by 28 →
2.3% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 51.5 · model 52.8
Mkt 51.5
Model 52.8
20 pts4672 pts
2.2% of NFL games finish between 51.5 and 52.8. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
