The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
59%Buffalo BillsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BUF by 3.2market BUF by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
47.7 pointsmarket 45.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Buffalo Bills at 59% to win, with the market at BUF by 3.
BUF has the advantage in big plays: BUF explosive pass rate ranks #4, PHI defends it at #15; the other way PHI #22 into BUF's #9.
BUF has the advantage in passing: BUF passing ranks #4, PHI defends it at #9; the other way PHI #14 into BUF's #10.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours PHI. PHI turnovers / game ranks #1, BUF defends it at #14; the other way BUF #18 into PHI's #13. The pick still lands on BUF because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with BUF, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it BUF by 3.2 against a market BUF by 3: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 47.7 against a line of 45.5: 2.2 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BUF by 3.2 · market BUF by 3
ⓘMost of these areas favor PHI, but the model still picks BUF. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
BUF
Slight advantage
BUF passing ranks #4, PHI defends it at #9; the other way PHI #14 into BUF's #10.
Rushing game
PHI
Slight advantage
PHI rushing ranks #12, BUF defends it at #29; the other way BUF #1 into PHI's #6.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
BUF third-down conversion ranks #3, PHI defends it at #22; the other way PHI #24 into BUF's #24.
Big plays
BUF
Slight advantage
BUF explosive pass rate ranks #4, PHI defends it at #15; the other way PHI #22 into BUF's #9.
Pass protection & rush
PHI
Slight advantage
PHI sack rate ranks #13, BUF defends it at #19; the other way BUF #19 into PHI's #15.
Ball security
PHI
Clear advantage
PHI turnovers / game ranks #1, BUF defends it at #14; the other way BUF #18 into PHI's #13.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
BUF +5.8 per game over the last five, PHI +6.4.
Market
BUF
Slight advantage
Consensus has BUF by 3; the model says BUF by 3.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket BUF by 3 · model BUF by 3.2
Mkt BUF 3
Model BUF 3.2
← PHI by 28tieBUF by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 45.5 · model 47.7
Mkt 45.5
Model 47.7
20 pts4672 pts
5.7% of NFL games finish between 45.5 and 47.7. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
