The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
73%Cincinnati BengalsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
CIN by 8.5market CIN by 7
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
59.2 pointsmarket 52.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Cincinnati Bengals at 73% to win, with the market at CIN by 7.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Jacoby Brissett starting for Arizona Cardinals, and the model prices that in.
CIN has the advantage in rushing: CIN rushing ranks #5, ARI defends it at #25; the other way ARI #29 into CIN's #31.
CIN has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: CIN red-zone touchdown rate ranks #3, ARI defends it at #27; the other way ARI #24 into CIN's #25.
Form: CIN has the better last five games by 22.2 points a game (CIN +3.2, ARI -19.0).
Home field is with CIN, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it CIN by 8.5 against a market CIN by 7: 1.5 points of daylight in CIN's favour. The model's total is 59.2 against a line of 52.5: 6.7 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model CIN by 8.5 · market CIN by 7
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
ARI
Slight advantage
ARI passing ranks #19, CIN defends it at #28; the other way CIN #25 into ARI's #26.
Rushing game
CIN
Clear advantage
CIN rushing ranks #5, ARI defends it at #25; the other way ARI #29 into CIN's #31.
Third down & red zone
CIN
Clear advantage
CIN red-zone touchdown rate ranks #3, ARI defends it at #27; the other way ARI #24 into CIN's #25.
Big plays
=
Even
CIN explosive rush rate ranks #20, ARI defends it at #29; the other way ARI #29 into CIN's #27.
Pass protection & rush
CIN
Clear advantage
CIN sack rate ranks #10, ARI defends it at #28; the other way ARI #24 into CIN's #23.
Ball security
ARI
Slight advantage
ARI turnovers / game ranks #17, CIN defends it at #12; the other way CIN #30 into ARI's #18.
Form (last 5)
CIN
Clear advantage
CIN +3.2 per game over the last five, ARI −19.0.
Market
CIN
Clear advantage
Consensus has CIN by 7; the model says CIN by 8.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket CIN by 7 · model CIN by 8.5
Mkt CIN 7
Model CIN 8.5
← ARI by 28tieCIN by 28 →
2.5% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 7, a number 8.6% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 52.5 · model 59.2
Mkt 52.5
Model 59.2
20 pts4672 pts
12.6% of NFL games finish between 52.5 and 59.2. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
