The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
54%Los Angeles ChargersLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
LAC by 1.5market DAL by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
56.9 pointsmarket 50.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Los Angeles Chargers at 54% to win, with the market at DAL by 1.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Justin Herbert starting for Los Angeles Chargers, and the model prices that in.
LAC has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: LAC third-down conversion ranks #4, DAL defends it at #32; the other way DAL #8 into LAC's #5.
LAC has the advantage in rushing: LAC rushing ranks #23, DAL defends it at #30; the other way DAL #8 into LAC's #3.
Form: LAC has the better last five games by 7.2 points a game (DAL -9.8, LAC -2.6).
Home field is with DAL, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it LAC by 1.5 against a market DAL by 1.5: 3.0 points of daylight in LAC's favour. The model's total is 56.9 against a line of 50.5: 6.4 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model LAC by 1.5 · market DAL by 1.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
LAC passing ranks #24, DAL defends it at #31; the other way DAL #6 into LAC's #8.
Rushing game
LAC
Slight advantage
LAC rushing ranks #23, DAL defends it at #30; the other way DAL #8 into LAC's #3.
Third down & red zone
LAC
Clear advantage
LAC third-down conversion ranks #4, DAL defends it at #32; the other way DAL #8 into LAC's #5.
Big plays
=
Even
LAC explosive pass rate ranks #23, DAL defends it at #27; the other way DAL #12 into LAC's #7.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
DAL sack rate ranks #6, LAC defends it at #6; the other way LAC #29 into DAL's #26.
Ball security
LAC
Clear advantage
LAC turnovers / game ranks #14, DAL defends it at #30; the other way DAL #19 into LAC's #7.
Form (last 5)
LAC
Clear advantage
DAL −9.8 per game over the last five, LAC −2.6.
Market
DAL
Slight advantage
Consensus has DAL by 1.5; the model says LAC by 1.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket DAL by 1.5 · model LAC by 1.5
Mkt DAL 1.5
Model LAC 1.5
← LAC by 28tieDAL by 28 →
4.8% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 50.5 · model 56.9
Mkt 50.5
Model 56.9
20 pts4672 pts
12.9% of NFL games finish between 50.5 and 56.9. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
