The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
58%Baltimore RavensLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BAL by 2.7market BAL by 3.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
41.2 pointsmarket 48.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Baltimore Ravens at 58% to win, with the market at BAL by 3.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Lamar Jackson starting for Baltimore Ravens, and the model prices that in.
BAL has the advantage in rushing: BAL rushing ranks #3, NE defends it at #12; the other way NE #27 into BAL's #11.
Counterpoint: passing favours NE. NE passing ranks #3, BAL defends it at #21; the other way BAL #20 into NE's #5. The pick still lands on BAL because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with BAL, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it BAL by 2.7 against a market BAL by 3.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 41.2 against a line of 48.5: 7.3 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BAL by 2.7 · market BAL by 3.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor NE, but the model still picks BAL. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
NE
Clear advantage
NE passing ranks #3, BAL defends it at #21; the other way BAL #20 into NE's #5.
Rushing game
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL rushing ranks #3, NE defends it at #12; the other way NE #27 into BAL's #11.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
NE third-down conversion ranks #10, BAL defends it at #11; the other way BAL #12 into NE's #7.
Big plays
NE
Slight advantage
NE explosive pass rate ranks #2, BAL defends it at #28; the other way BAL #11 into NE's #3.
Pass protection & rush
NE
Slight advantage
NE sack rate ranks #28, BAL defends it at #31; the other way BAL #27 into NE's #16.
Ball security
NE
Clear advantage
NE turnovers / game ranks #16, BAL defends it at #19; the other way BAL #25 into NE's #9.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
BAL +6.0 per game over the last five, NE +8.0.
Market
BAL
Clear advantage
Consensus has BAL by 3.5; the model says BAL by 2.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket BAL by 3.5 · model BAL by 2.7
Mkt BAL 3.5
Model BAL 2.7
← NE by 28tieBAL by 28 →
7.7% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 48.5 · model 41.2
Mkt 48.5
Model 41.2
20 pts4672 pts
19.9% of NFL games finish between 48.5 and 41.2. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
