The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
66%Philadelphia EaglesSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
PHI by 5.7market PHI by 7
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
41.9 pointsmarket 43.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Philadelphia Eagles at 66% to win, with the market at PHI by 7.
PHI has the advantage in passing: PHI passing ranks #14, WSH defends it at #30; the other way WSH #17 into PHI's #9.
PHI has the advantage in rushing: PHI rushing ranks #12, WSH defends it at #28; the other way WSH #11 into PHI's #6.
Form: PHI has the better last five games by 13.2 points a game (WSH -6.8, PHI +6.4).
Home field is with WSH, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it PHI by 5.7 against a market PHI by 7: 1.3 points of daylight in WSH's favour. The model's total is 41.9 against a line of 43.5: 1.6 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model PHI by 5.7 · market PHI by 7
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
PHI
Clear advantage
PHI passing ranks #14, WSH defends it at #30; the other way WSH #17 into PHI's #9.
Rushing game
PHI
Clear advantage
PHI rushing ranks #12, WSH defends it at #28; the other way WSH #11 into PHI's #6.
Third down & red zone
PHI
Slight advantage
PHI red-zone touchdown rate ranks #1, WSH defends it at #31; the other way WSH #5 into PHI's #11.
Big plays
PHI
Slight advantage
PHI explosive pass rate ranks #22, WSH defends it at #25; the other way WSH #18 into PHI's #15.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
PHI sack rate ranks #13, WSH defends it at #12; the other way WSH #18 into PHI's #15.
Ball security
PHI
Clear advantage
PHI turnovers / game ranks #1, WSH defends it at #31; the other way WSH #22 into PHI's #13.
Form (last 5)
PHI
Clear advantage
WSH −6.8 per game over the last five, PHI +6.4.
Market
PHI
Clear advantage
Consensus has PHI by 7; the model says PHI by 5.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket PHI by 7 · model PHI by 5.7
Mkt PHI 7
Model PHI 5.7
← PHI by 28tieWSH by 28 →
3.0% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 7, a number 8.6% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 6. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 43.5 · model 41.9
Mkt 43.5
Model 41.9
20 pts4672 pts
5.2% of NFL games finish between 43.5 and 41.9. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
