The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
60%Pittsburgh SteelersLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
PIT by 3.3market PIT by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
39.2 pointsmarket 42.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Pittsburgh Steelers at 60% to win, with the market at PIT by 3.
PIT has the advantage in passing: PIT passing ranks #22, MIA defends it at #27; the other way MIA #23 into PIT's #16.
PIT has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: PIT red-zone touchdown rate ranks #18, MIA defends it at #23; the other way MIA #19 into PIT's #5.
Home field is with PIT, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it PIT by 3.3 against a market PIT by 3: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 39.2 against a line of 42.5: 3.3 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model PIT by 3.3 · market PIT by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
PIT
Slight advantage
PIT passing ranks #22, MIA defends it at #27; the other way MIA #23 into PIT's #16.
Rushing game
=
Even
MIA rushing ranks #9, PIT defends it at #26; the other way PIT #7 into MIA's #20.
Third down & red zone
PIT
Slight advantage
PIT red-zone touchdown rate ranks #18, MIA defends it at #23; the other way MIA #19 into PIT's #5.
Big plays
=
Even
MIA explosive pass rate ranks #13, PIT defends it at #13; the other way PIT #25 into MIA's #24.
Pass protection & rush
PIT
Slight advantage
PIT sack rate ranks #12, MIA defends it at #14; the other way MIA #21 into PIT's #9.
Ball security
PIT
Clear advantage
PIT turnovers / game ranks #7, MIA defends it at #21; the other way MIA #27 into PIT's #5.
Form (last 5)
PIT
Slight advantage
PIT −2.2 per game over the last five, MIA −7.6.
Market
PIT
Slight advantage
Consensus has PIT by 3; the model says PIT by 3.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket PIT by 3 · model PIT by 3.3
Mkt PIT 3
Model PIT 3.3
← MIA by 28tiePIT by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 42.5 · model 39.2
Mkt 42.5
Model 39.2
20 pts4672 pts
8.6% of NFL games finish between 42.5 and 39.2. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
