The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
71%Seattle SeahawksStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
SEA by 7.4market SEA by 13.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
52.8 pointsmarket 41.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Seattle Seahawks at 71% to win, with the market at SEA by 13.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Sam Darnold starting for Seattle Seahawks, and the model prices that in.
SEA has the advantage in big plays: SEA explosive pass rate ranks #6, IND defends it at #18; the other way IND #21 into SEA's #8.
SEA has the advantage in passing: SEA passing ranks #7, IND defends it at #18; the other way IND #11 into SEA's #6.
Counterpoint: rushing favours IND. IND rushing ranks #2, SEA defends it at #1; the other way SEA #21 into IND's #8. The pick still lands on SEA because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: SEA has the better last five games by 27.2 points a game (SEA +16.4, IND -10.8).
Home field is with SEA, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it SEA by 7.4 against a market SEA by 13.5: 6.1 points of daylight in IND's favour. The model's total is 52.8 against a line of 41.5: 11.3 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model SEA by 7.4 · market SEA by 13.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA passing ranks #7, IND defends it at #18; the other way IND #11 into SEA's #6.
Rushing game
IND
Slight advantage
IND rushing ranks #2, SEA defends it at #1; the other way SEA #21 into IND's #8.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
SEA third-down conversion ranks #16, IND defends it at #25; the other way IND #7 into SEA's #1.
Big plays
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA explosive pass rate ranks #6, IND defends it at #18; the other way IND #21 into SEA's #8.
Pass protection & rush
SEA
Slight advantage
SEA sack rate ranks #11, IND defends it at #24; the other way IND #7 into SEA's #11.
Ball security
=
Even
SEA turnovers / game ranks #26, IND defends it at #10; the other way IND #21 into SEA's #4.
Form (last 5)
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA +16.4 per game over the last five, IND −10.8.
Market
SEA
Clear advantage
Consensus has SEA by 13.5; the model says SEA by 7.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket SEA by 13.5 · model SEA by 7.4
Mkt SEA 13.5
Model SEA 7.4
← IND by 28tieSEA by 28 →
9.9% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 41.5 · model 52.8
Mkt 41.5
Model 52.8
20 pts4672 pts
30.9% of NFL games finish between 41.5 and 52.8. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
