The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
52%New England PatriotsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
NE by 0.5market BUF by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
49.9 pointsmarket 49.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has New England Patriots at 52% to win, with the market at BUF by 2.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Josh Allen starting for Buffalo Bills, and the model prices that in.
NE has the advantage in passing: NE passing ranks #3, BUF defends it at #10; the other way BUF #4 into NE's #5.
Rest: NE has 6 more days since its last game (NE 13d, BUF 7d).
Home field is with NE, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it NE by 0.5 against a market BUF by 2.5: 3.0 points of daylight in NE's favour. The model's total is 49.9 against a line of 49.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model NE by 0.5 · market BUF by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
NE
Slight advantage
NE passing ranks #3, BUF defends it at #10; the other way BUF #4 into NE's #5.
Rushing game
BUF
Slight advantage
BUF rushing ranks #1, NE defends it at #12; the other way NE #27 into BUF's #29.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
BUF red-zone touchdown rate ranks #2, NE defends it at #15; the other way NE #21 into BUF's #19.
Big plays
=
Even
NE explosive pass rate ranks #2, BUF defends it at #9; the other way BUF #4 into NE's #3.
Pass protection & rush
BUF
Slight advantage
BUF sack rate ranks #19, NE defends it at #16; the other way NE #28 into BUF's #19.
Ball security
NE
Slight advantage
NE turnovers / game ranks #16, BUF defends it at #14; the other way BUF #18 into NE's #9.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
NE +8.0 per game over the last five, BUF +5.8.
Market
BUF
Slight advantage
Consensus has BUF by 2.5; the model says NE by 0.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket BUF by 2.5 · model NE by 0.5
Mkt BUF 2.5
Model NE 0.5
← BUF by 28tieNE by 28 →
4.8% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 49.5 · model 49.9
Mkt 49.5
Model 49.9
20 pts4672 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
