The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
85%Houston TexansStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
HOU by 14.0market HOU by 10.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
40.8 pointsmarket 42.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Houston Texans at 85% to win, with the market at HOU by 10.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Jacoby Brissett starting for Arizona Cardinals, and the model prices that in.
HOU has the advantage in passing: HOU passing ranks #18, ARI defends it at #26; the other way ARI #19 into HOU's #1.
HOU has the advantage in rushing: HOU rushing ranks #30, ARI defends it at #25; the other way ARI #29 into HOU's #2.
Form: HOU has the better last five games by 24.2 points a game (HOU +5.2, ARI -19.0).
Home field is with HOU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it HOU by 14.0 against a market HOU by 10.5: 3.5 points of daylight in HOU's favour. The model's total is 40.8 against a line of 42.5: 1.7 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model HOU by 14.0 · market HOU by 10.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU passing ranks #18, ARI defends it at #26; the other way ARI #19 into HOU's #1.
Rushing game
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU rushing ranks #30, ARI defends it at #25; the other way ARI #29 into HOU's #2.
Third down & red zone
HOU
Slight advantage
HOU third-down conversion ranks #18, ARI defends it at #29; the other way ARI #9 into HOU's #2.
Big plays
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU explosive rush rate ranks #30, ARI defends it at #29; the other way ARI #29 into HOU's #2.
Pass protection & rush
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU sack rate ranks #9, ARI defends it at #28; the other way ARI #24 into HOU's #5.
Ball security
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU turnovers / game ranks #12, ARI defends it at #18; the other way ARI #17 into HOU's #2.
Form (last 5)
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU +5.2 per game over the last five, ARI −19.0.
Market
HOU
Clear advantage
Consensus has HOU by 10.5; the model says HOU by 14.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket HOU by 10.5 · model HOU by 14.0
Mkt HOU 10.5
Model HOU 14.0
← ARI by 28tieHOU by 28 →
6.3% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 14. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 42.5 · model 40.8
Mkt 42.5
Model 40.8
20 pts4672 pts
5.1% of NFL games finish between 42.5 and 40.8. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
