The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
56%Jacksonville JaguarsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
JAX by 1.9market IND by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
51.5 pointsmarket 44.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Jacksonville Jaguars at 56% to win, with the market at IND by 2.5.
JAX has the advantage in passing: JAX passing ranks #10, IND defends it at #18; the other way IND #11 into JAX's #4.
JAX has the advantage in big plays: JAX explosive pass rate ranks #9, IND defends it at #18; the other way IND #21 into JAX's #5.
Counterpoint: rushing favours IND. IND rushing ranks #2, JAX defends it at #16; the other way JAX #14 into IND's #8. The pick still lands on JAX because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: JAX has the better last five games by 26.6 points a game (JAX +15.8, IND -10.8).
Home field is with JAX, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it JAX by 1.9 against a market IND by 2.5: 4.4 points of daylight in JAX's favour. The model's total is 51.5 against a line of 44.5: 7.0 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model JAX by 1.9 · market IND by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
JAX
Clear advantage
JAX passing ranks #10, IND defends it at #18; the other way IND #11 into JAX's #4.
Rushing game
IND
Clear advantage
IND rushing ranks #2, JAX defends it at #16; the other way JAX #14 into IND's #8.
Third down & red zone
IND
Slight advantage
IND red-zone touchdown rate ranks #6, JAX defends it at #24; the other way JAX #8 into IND's #10.
Big plays
JAX
Slight advantage
JAX explosive pass rate ranks #9, IND defends it at #18; the other way IND #21 into JAX's #5.
Pass protection & rush
IND
Clear advantage
IND sack rate ranks #7, JAX defends it at #30; the other way JAX #16 into IND's #24.
Ball security
JAX
Clear advantage
JAX turnovers / game ranks #13, IND defends it at #10; the other way IND #21 into JAX's #3.
Form (last 5)
JAX
Clear advantage
JAX +15.8 per game over the last five, IND −10.8.
Market
IND
Slight advantage
Consensus has IND by 2.5; the model says JAX by 1.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket IND by 2.5 · model JAX by 1.9
Mkt IND 2.5
Model JAX 1.9
← IND by 28tieJAX by 28 →
7.1% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 44.5 · model 51.5
Mkt 44.5
Model 51.5
20 pts4672 pts
19.6% of NFL games finish between 44.5 and 51.5. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
