The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
70%Green Bay PackersStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
GB by 7.2market GB by 6.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
42.0 pointsmarket 44.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Green Bay Packers at 70% to win, with the market at GB by 6.5.
GB has the advantage in big plays: GB explosive pass rate ranks #3, CHI defends it at #32; the other way CHI #7 into GB's #10.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours CHI. CHI turnovers / game ranks #4, GB defends it at #26; the other way GB #2 into CHI's #1. The pick still lands on GB because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: CHI has the better last five games by 9.6 points a game (GB -9.6, CHI +0.0).
Home field is with GB, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it GB by 7.2 against a market GB by 6.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 42.0 against a line of 44.5: 2.5 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model GB by 7.2 · market GB by 6.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor CHI, but the model still picks GB. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
GB passing ranks #1, CHI defends it at #19; the other way CHI #9 into GB's #22.
Rushing game
CHI
Slight advantage
CHI rushing ranks #6, GB defends it at #17; the other way GB #22 into CHI's #19.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
GB red-zone touchdown rate ranks #11, CHI defends it at #21; the other way CHI #16 into GB's #16.
Big plays
GB
Clear advantage
GB explosive pass rate ranks #3, CHI defends it at #32; the other way CHI #7 into GB's #10.
Pass protection & rush
CHI
Slight advantage
CHI sack rate ranks #1, GB defends it at #25; the other way GB #8 into CHI's #21.
Ball security
CHI
Clear advantage
CHI turnovers / game ranks #4, GB defends it at #26; the other way GB #2 into CHI's #1.
Form (last 5)
CHI
Clear advantage
GB −9.6 per game over the last five, CHI 0.0.
Market
GB
Clear advantage
Consensus has GB by 6.5; the model says GB by 7.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket GB by 6.5 · model GB by 7.2
Mkt GB 6.5
Model GB 7.2
← CHI by 28tieGB by 28 →
4.5% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 7. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 44.5 · model 42.0
Mkt 44.5
Model 42.0
20 pts4672 pts
9.1% of NFL games finish between 44.5 and 42.0. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
