The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
68%Baltimore RavensSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BAL by 6.3market BAL by 5.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
41.2 pointsmarket 43.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Baltimore Ravens at 68% to win, with the market at BAL by 5.5.
BAL has the advantage in rushing: BAL rushing ranks #3, PIT defends it at #26; the other way PIT #7 into BAL's #11.
BAL has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: BAL third-down conversion ranks #12, PIT defends it at #26; the other way PIT #20 into BAL's #11.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours PIT. PIT sack rate ranks #12, BAL defends it at #31; the other way BAL #27 into PIT's #9. The pick still lands on BAL because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: BAL has 3 more days since its last game (BAL 10d, PIT 7d).
Form: BAL has the better last five games by 8.2 points a game (BAL +6.0, PIT -2.2).
Home field is with BAL, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it BAL by 6.3 against a market BAL by 5.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 41.2 against a line of 43.5: 2.3 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BAL by 6.3 · market BAL by 5.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
PIT passing ranks #22, BAL defends it at #21; the other way BAL #20 into PIT's #16.
Rushing game
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL rushing ranks #3, PIT defends it at #26; the other way PIT #7 into BAL's #11.
Third down & red zone
BAL
Slight advantage
BAL third-down conversion ranks #12, PIT defends it at #26; the other way PIT #20 into BAL's #11.
Big plays
=
Even
BAL explosive rush rate ranks #2, PIT defends it at #19; the other way PIT #9 into BAL's #21.
Pass protection & rush
PIT
Clear advantage
PIT sack rate ranks #12, BAL defends it at #31; the other way BAL #27 into PIT's #9.
Ball security
PIT
Clear advantage
PIT turnovers / game ranks #7, BAL defends it at #19; the other way BAL #25 into PIT's #5.
Form (last 5)
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL +6.0 per game over the last five, PIT −2.2.
Market
BAL
Clear advantage
Consensus has BAL by 5.5; the model says BAL by 6.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket BAL by 5.5 · model BAL by 6.3
Mkt BAL 5.5
Model BAL 6.3
← PIT by 28tieBAL by 28 →
3.7% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 6. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 43.5 · model 41.2
Mkt 43.5
Model 41.2
20 pts4672 pts
5.2% of NFL games finish between 43.5 and 41.2. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
