The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
81%New England PatriotsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
NE by 12.1market NE by 7
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
49.1 pointsmarket 46.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has New England Patriots at 81% to win, with the market at NE by 7.
NE has the advantage in passing: NE passing ranks #3, NYG defends it at #17; the other way NYG #16 into NE's #5.
NE has the advantage in big plays: NE explosive pass rate ranks #2, NYG defends it at #20; the other way NYG #10 into NE's #3.
Home field is with NE, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it NE by 12.1 against a market NE by 7: 5.1 points of daylight in NE's favour. The model's total is 49.1 against a line of 46.5: 2.6 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model NE by 12.1 · market NE by 7
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
NE
Clear advantage
NE passing ranks #3, NYG defends it at #17; the other way NYG #16 into NE's #5.
Rushing game
=
Even
NE rushing ranks #27, NYG defends it at #32; the other way NYG #10 into NE's #12.
Third down & red zone
NE
Clear advantage
NE red-zone touchdown rate ranks #21, NYG defends it at #26; the other way NYG #28 into NE's #15.
Big plays
NE
Clear advantage
NE explosive pass rate ranks #2, NYG defends it at #20; the other way NYG #10 into NE's #3.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
NYG sack rate ranks #23, NE defends it at #16; the other way NE #28 into NYG's #17.
Ball security
NE
Slight advantage
NE turnovers / game ranks #16, NYG defends it at #25; the other way NYG #10 into NE's #9.
Form (last 5)
NE
Slight advantage
NE +8.0 per game over the last five, NYG +2.4.
Market
NE
Clear advantage
Consensus has NE by 7; the model says NE by 12.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket NE by 7 · model NE by 12.1
Mkt NE 7
Model NE 12.1
← NYG by 28tieNE by 28 →
8.7% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 7, a number 8.6% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 46.5 · model 49.1
Mkt 46.5
Model 49.1
20 pts4672 pts
8.4% of NFL games finish between 46.5 and 49.1. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
