The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
75%Seattle SeahawksStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
SEA by 9.3market SEA by 12.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
46.6 pointsmarket 42.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Seattle Seahawks at 75% to win, with the market at SEA by 12.5.
SEA has the advantage in passing: SEA passing ranks #7, MIN defends it at #2; the other way MIN #29 into SEA's #6.
SEA has the advantage in big plays: SEA explosive rush rate ranks #7, MIN defends it at #16; the other way MIN #4 into SEA's #1.
Home field is with SEA, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it SEA by 9.3 against a market SEA by 12.5: 3.2 points of daylight in MIN's favour. The model's total is 46.6 against a line of 42.5: 4.1 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model SEA by 9.3 · market SEA by 12.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA passing ranks #7, MIN defends it at #2; the other way MIN #29 into SEA's #6.
Rushing game
SEA
Slight advantage
SEA rushing ranks #21, MIN defends it at #13; the other way MIN #18 into SEA's #1.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
SEA third-down conversion ranks #16, MIN defends it at #3; the other way MIN #31 into SEA's #1.
Big plays
SEA
Slight advantage
SEA explosive rush rate ranks #7, MIN defends it at #16; the other way MIN #4 into SEA's #1.
Pass protection & rush
SEA
Slight advantage
SEA sack rate ranks #11, MIN defends it at #3; the other way MIN #31 into SEA's #11.
Ball security
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA turnovers / game ranks #26, MIN defends it at #16; the other way MIN #32 into SEA's #4.
Form (last 5)
SEA
Slight advantage
SEA +16.4 per game over the last five, MIN +13.6.
Market
SEA
Clear advantage
Consensus has SEA by 12.5; the model says SEA by 9.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket SEA by 12.5 · model SEA by 9.3
Mkt SEA 12.5
Model SEA 9.3
← MIN by 28tieSEA by 28 →
5.2% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 42.5 · model 46.6
Mkt 42.5
Model 46.6
20 pts4672 pts
12.2% of NFL games finish between 42.5 and 46.6. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
